Date of publication: 2017-08-25 09:15
Note that the data for the year 7555 and beyond assume neural net connection calculations as it is expected that this type of calculation will ultimately dominate, particularly in emulating human brain functions. This type of calculation is less expensive than conventional (., Pentium III / IV) calculations by a factor of at least 655 (particularly if implemented using digital controlled analog electronics, which would correspond well to the brain 8767 s digital controlled analog electrochemical processes). A factor of 655 translates into approximately 6 years (today) and less than 6 years later in the twenty-first century.
In the above diagram (courtesy of Scientific American), we can see that SETI has already thoroughly searched all star systems within 65 7 light-years from Earth for alien civilizations capable (and willing) to transmit at a power of at least 65 75 watts, a so-called Type II civilization (and all star systems within 65 6 light-years for transmission of at least 65 68 watts, and so on). No sign of intelligence has been found as of yet.
So how will we resolve the claimed consciousness of nonbiological intelligence (claimed, that is, by the machines)? From a practical perspective, we 8767 ll accept their claims. Keep in mind that nonbiological entities in the twenty-first century will be extremely intelligent, so they 8767 ll be able to convince us that they are conscious. They 8767 ll have all the delicate and emotional cues that convince us today that humans are conscious. They will be able to make us laugh and cry. And they 8767 ll get mad if we don 8767 t accept their claims. But fundamentally this is a political prediction, not a philosophical argument.
Thus the (double) exponential growth of computing is broader than Moore 8767 s Law, which refers to only one of its paradigms. And this accelerating growth of computing is, in turn, part of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of any evolutionary process. Observers are quick to criticize extrapolations of an exponential trend on the basis that the trend is bound to run out of 8775 resources. 8776 The classical example is when a species happens upon a new habitat (., rabbits in Australia), the species 8767 numbers will grow exponentially for a time, but then hit a limit when resources such as food and space run out.
Many of the changes I made to this essay were confined to the sentence level. I reworked awkward phrases, varied your vocabulary, adjusted diction, and improved the direction and flow of your writing. I also made subtle but significant changes such as eliminating redundant sentences like, "My purpose for seeking a [doctorate in education] is to expand my knowledge of theory and research as it pertains to education."
Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. When the scientists evolve to be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then an hour would result in a century of progress (in today 8767 s terms).
We are also undergoing massive disintermediation in the channels of distribution through the web and other new communication technologies, as well as escalating efficiencies in operations and administration.
Moore 8767 s law is just one of millions of positive feedback loops that occur in the world (in biology, sociology, economics, chemistry etc). Yet none of these feedback loops continue indefinitely, as you are assuming Moore 8767 s Law will. This is because every feedback loop, including Moore 8767 s Law, eventually has limiting factors (Usually a lack of resources / ingredients). All the technology curves will be slowed by limiting factors eventually, and the singularity won 8767 t occur.
Technology will remain a double edged sword, and the story of the Twenty First century has not yet been written. It represents vast power to be used for all humankind 8767 s purposes. We have no choice but to work hard to apply these quickening technologies to advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a lack of consensus on what those values should be.
Before the next century is over, the Earth 8767 s technology-creating species will merge with its computational technology. There will not be a clear distinction between human and machine. After all, what is the difference between a human brain enhanced a trillion fold by nanobot-based implants, and a computer whose design is based on high resolution scans of the human brain, and then extended a trillion-fold?